A recent poll commissioned by Kalshi, a well-known prediction market operator, reveals a strong inclination among Americans for federal oversight of prediction markets instead of state regulations. This survey comes at a crucial time when various state gaming commissions are grappling with whether they should regulate these markets, which could significantly impact how they operate.

Poll Insights and Background

Conducted by Axis Research from September 18 to 23, 2025, the survey gathered responses from 1,219 voters from different parts of the United States. The findings are quite telling: an overwhelming 89% of those surveyed believe that, regardless of personal engagement, all Americans should have the right to access prediction markets. This reflects widespread public support for maintaining these platforms.

According to the poll, a substantial 70% of participants feel that Americans should be allowed to invest in specific outcomes, such as elections and agricultural futures. Interestingly, support for this idea transcends political boundaries, with 75% of Republicans and 71% of Democrats agreeing on this issue.

One crucial aspect of the study highlighted how most respondents perceive prediction markets. A staggering 89% see these markets more as financial instruments rather than a form of gambling. When questioned about regulatory authority, 79% preferred that federal regulators oversee prediction markets, while only 21% favored state gaming commissions.

Sara Slane, Kalshi’s Head of Corporate Development, stated that these results underscore the need for federal oversight through the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). She emphasized the importance of having a reliable regulatory framework in which Americans could freely invest their money, without interference from state-level bureaucrats. Slane also mentioned concerns that a fragmented regulatory landscape could create confusion and complicate decision-making for consumers, particularly impacting middle and lower-income households.

Concerns About State Regulations

The poll reveals that many Americans are uneasy about shifting the regulation of prediction markets to state governance. An alarming 82% of respondents agree that managing prediction markets under 50 different state rules would lead to a chaotic environment, making it more difficult for consumers. Additionally, 83% noted that inconsistent regulations from state to state could sow confusion, while another 83% warned that such an approach might result in looser regulations, increasing the risk of corruption.

Given these sentiments, it’s clear that the call for federal oversight is not merely about regulatory preference; it reflects deeper concerns about consumer protection and the integrity of financial markets.

Understanding the Potential Bias

However, it is vital to recognize the context in which this poll was conducted. Since Kalshi benefits directly from remaining under federal oversight, some may question the neutrality of the poll’s framing. The results highlight a perspective that describes state regulations as problematic while portraying federal oversight as competent and fair. This framing could inadvertently support Kalshi’s interests, showcasing a need for regulatory scrutiny.

Ongoing Legal Battles

Adding another layer to this discussion are the ongoing legal battles faced by Kalshi regarding how its contracts should be classified. Several states, including Nevada and New Jersey, have issued cease and desist orders, claiming that Kalshi’s contracts resemble sports bets that fall under state gambling laws, rather than being federally regulated event contracts. In response, Kalshi has filed lawsuits arguing that its offerings are entirely under the jurisdiction of the CFTC. This controversy illustrates the complexities surrounding prediction markets and their regulation.

In conclusion, the sentiment captured in the Kalshi-backed poll reflects a significant preference among Americans for federal oversight of prediction markets. As these platforms face regulatory challenges at the state level, the call for a unified regulatory framework becomes more pressing. By providing consumers with the freedom and structure needed to make financial decisions, we could pave the way for a more transparent and equitable market.

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Original Text – https://readwrite.com/kalshi-poll-finds-americans-favor-federal-oversight-prediction-markets/